Can the energy transition happen? – AllianceBernstein

A fast energy transition incurs social and political costs that will probably be deemed unacceptable. It is imperative for investors to consider the ramifications of an energy transition that exceeds a timeframe beyond 2050.

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... The power demand of artificial intelligence in developed markets, coupled with continued growth in emerging markets limit the speed of adjustment. Moreover, any agenda of de-growth will also be unacceptable to populations in democratic societies and is arguably not even morally justifiable.

Thus, the transition will take a lot longer than investors generally anticipate. Consequently, it seems increasingly likely that temperatures will rise above the level assumed by most mainstream investors. The consequence is a significantly increased 'path risk' in the overall investment environment and a greater risk of non-linear outcomes.

AllianceBernstein argue that this has profound investment implications, requiring a significantly greater level of diversification than is generally assumed. It also may require a very material reallocation into real assets, although these also come with a host of climate-related issues.

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